Santa Cruz County Regional Transportation
Commission
Major Transportation Investment Study (MTIS)
Executive Summary
(prepared by Parsons, Brinckerhoff, Quade and Douglas)
The Watsonville Junction to Downtown Santa Cruz to UCSC Campus Major Transportation Investment Strategy (MTIS) technical efforts have been completed. This report summarizes the results from this MTIS, evaluates the alternative investment strategies, and concludes with the consultant team’s recommendations in terms of the recommended investment strategy to be pursued by the SCCRTC.
The recommended investment strategy is to pursue additional funding through a new ¼-cent sales tax and a federal earmark to construct by the year 2006 a busway and bikeway project in the Santa Cruz Branch Line right-of-way between Natural Bridges and State Park Drive. As part of this concept and in the near-term, it is also recommended that an Intercity Recreational Rail service on weekends be instituted and test marketed for the longer term.
With these recommendations implemented, the consultant team believes that the transportation challenges facing the region are being addressed to a degree; without them it is clear that travel in the region will deteriorate over time as the region grows.
Summary of MTIS Results
A summary of each technical task is presented below:
Task 4, Public Participation, remains on-going and will consist of several efforts during the Fall of 1998. Efforts conducted to date include:
- A rail bulletin.
- Demonstration trains.
- Public opinion surveys.
- Various public meetings and workshops.
To date, it is clear from the public input and interest in the MTIS that a broad-based consensus does not presently exist to implement one study alternative over another. There continues to be, for example, strong advocates for widening Highway 1 for carpool lanes and strong advocates for implementing rail service in the corridor. There are also a bus oriented and "do nothing" contingents in the community. Further public input, review and comments will be gathered during the upcoming public input phase in the Fall of 1998.
Task 5, Model Development, established the methodology for the travel forecast model and identified several areas of further model development that would enhance the capability of the travel demand model to forecast the unique travel patterns in Santa Cruz County. These changes could potentially results in travel patterns different from those presented in the MTIS. The three areas of recommended further study are:
- Conduct a more-detailed visitor study including trip diaries to determine the existing travel patterns and needs of the visitor community;
- Conduct a more-detailed study of future UCSC student off-campus housing. It is generally believed that as the student population continues to grow, supply and demand considerations will push student housing further east into Live Oak and other areas on the east side of the City of Santa Cruz. If this is the case, student travel patterns can be expected to change from closer-in walk/bicycle trips to farther-out transit/auto trips; and
- Conduct a more-detailed Cabrillo College housing location and user characteristics survey to better understand the needs of these students.
Task 6, Screening of Alternatives, led to the identification of eight alternative investment strategies based on a two-phase screening process. First, 34 alternative concepts were initially identified leading to the screening of 15 alternatives. The 15 alternative concepts were then reviewed with the public and decision-makers and subsequently refined into eight "investment strategies" for detailed study. The eight investment strategies were studied in detail in this MTIS. Also, it should be noted that, as stated in Section 3.1 of this document, there were certain key design or implementation decisions made that influenced the costs of the alternatives studied.
Task 8, Detailed Definition of Alternatives, provided a set of engineering drawings and cross-sections, as well as graphic and written descriptions of the alternatives. The information presented in this task was used to develop the cost estimates and served as the basis for developing the travel forecasts.
Task 9, Travel Forecasts, resulted in a series of traffic and transit travel forecasts that were reviewed by and accepted by a "Peer Review" of travel forecasting experts. In addition to this, the reader is reminded of the following anticipated future conditions based on the Association of Monterey Bay Area Governments (AMBAG) forecasts:
- Population in Santa Cruz County is anticipated to increase by 28% between 1990 and 2015, growing from 239,000 to 306,000.
- Residential Housing in Santa Cruz County is anticipated to increase by 24% between 1990 and 2015, growing from 86,000 units to 107,000 units.
- Employment in Santa Cruz County is anticipated to increase by 36% between 1990 and 2015, growing from 104,000 to 141,000 jobs.
Task 10, Transportation Impacts, presented the results of the travel forecasting process. The key results presented in this task were:
- Under the "Do Nothing" or Baseline alternative, the level of vehicle travel--as reflected by the forecasted amount of Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT)--is projected to increase by 45% (more than the growth in population and employment in the County) between 1990 and 2015. Moreover, the level of congestion--as reflected by the forecasted amount of Vehicle Hours of Travel (VHT)--is projected to increase by 119% between 1990 and 2015. As a result, there will be a significant increase in both vehicle travel and congestion between now and 2015.
- Of all the alternatives tested in the MTIS, a very modest decrease in VMT (1.5% to 1.8%) is anticipated with the exception of the Widening of Highway 1 alternative which actually increases VMT by slightly less than 1%. A decrease in VHT (1.7% to 3.3%) is anticipated with implementation of all the investment strategies.
- In terms of traffic congestion relief, the "rail" investment strategies provide the greatest relief to the arterial and non-freeway state highway systems in the County. The "Widening of Highway 1" investment strategy provides the greatest relief to the Freeway system in the County.
- In terms of transit effects, it is noted that the "Do Nothing" or Baseline alternative will not allow transit service in the county to maintain its present-day share (2.14%) of all trips. The greatest share of transit trips is achieved with the Improved Bus Service (Alternative 8) investment strategy. It should be noted that even with this alternative, the County is projected to capture 2.7% of all trips on transit--which is significantly less than the regional goal of 10% of all trips.
- Of the approximate 1,000,000 person trips forecasted to occur in Santa Cruz County on an average day, approximately 15% of them are projected to occur by pedestrian or bicycle travel (as compared to a model estimate of 17% today).
- With regard to transit usage, the UCSC campus was consistently identified as capturing the greatest number of transit trips and mode share of the four key activity areas evaluated--UCSC, Downtown Santa Cruz, Capitola Village, and Downtown Watsonville. Conversely, Downtown Watsonville consistently captured the least number of trips by transit.
- Finally, with the busway and rail investment strategies, 83% of the boardings are forecasted to occur between the UCSC campus and Capitola.
Task 11, Environmental Scan, resulted in an analysis of environmental issues in the corridor and provided recommendations for the next phase of environmental review. The key conclusion from the scan was that none of the investment strategies appear to have a fatal flaw in terms of environmental effects that would preclude their development. Mitigation measures will be required, however, to implement one or more of the alternatives.
Task 12, Capital and Operating & Maintenance Costs identified the associated costs for each of the alternatives. It is noted that given the level of engineering detail available to the consultant team during this phase of study, there are relatively large contingency factors used to produce the cost estimates. The cost estimates have been reviewed and approved by the independent Peer Review team.
Task 13, Financial Analysis, provides an analysis of the financial condition and financial capability of the region to continue the status quo and/or construct and operate & maintain the various alternatives tested. The key results of this task were:
- The Baseline investment strategies (as presently defined) can continue with a modest surplus using existing funding sources. However, none of the other investment strategies (as presently defined) can be fully constructed and/or maintained with present revenue sources.
- With the addition of a new 1/4-cent countywide sales tax dedicated entirely to transit, the TSM and busway investment strategies could be constructed and operated with a surplus. However, neither the rail investment strategies, the widening of Highway 1, nor the Improved Bus strategy can be constructed and/or maintained without other new financial resources beyond a ½-cent sales tax.
- As noted in the document, given that the MTIS is intended to improve travel mobility in the Santa Cruz region, other financial strategies are suggested and need to be considered by decision-makers in order to match the region's financial resources with solutions for the region’s growing travel congestion problems.
Task 14, MTIS Report, is this report and provides a summary of the findings and the consultant's recommended investment strategy.
Task 15, Intercity Recreational Rail Study, was completed in August, 1996 and provides an assessment of the operational infrastructure considerations for running a weekend recreational rail service between the San Francisco Bay Area and the Santa Cruz community. The assessment identified possible operators, ridership potential, infrastructure improvements, a potential operating plan, and the institutional and financial issues associated with the provision of an intercity recreational rail service. The study concluded with a recommendation for a near-term operating strategy and operating plan. Also presented was a matrix of potential future improvements and operating effects for medium and long-term service concepts.
Recommended Investment Strategy
In light of the Commission's recent decision not to endorse any recommended investment strategy at this time, this portion of the executive summary is not included here.
The adopted program of projects for the Watsonville - Santa Cruz - UCSC corridor is available. You can read it on-line, e-mail your request or call 460-3200 to receive a copy.
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